Stochastic Models in Demography
I will briefly survey a range of ways that stochastic elements have entered into the application of demographic methods, particularly in an ecological or evolutionary context, over the past half century: small-population estimates, matrix models in random environments, frailty models, stochastic population projections, and genetic reconstruction of population flows. I will describe how the stochastic elements demand sometimes unintuitive interpretations of these models.
I will then explain in detail the creation and interpretation of two kinds of models: latent changing frailty models and matrix models in random environments. I will introduce and demonstrate a new software package for performing calculations for matrix models, and show the first version of a statistical package currently under development for applying latent changing frailty models to complex longitudinal data.
I will briefly survey a range of ways that stochastic elements have entered into the application of demographic methods, particularly in an ecological or evolutionary context, over the past half century: small-population estimates, matrix models in random environments, frailty models, stochastic population projections, and genetic reconstruction of population flows. I will describe how the stochastic elements demand sometimes unintuitive interpretations of these models.
I will then explain in detail the creation and interpretation of two kinds of models: latent changing frailty models and matrix models in random environments. I will introduce and demonstrate a new software package for performing calculations for matrix models, and show the first version of a statistical package currently under development for applying latent changing frailty models to complex longitudinal data.